CODEWITHSUNDEEP
python-3.xpredictionforecastingfacebook-prophet
Django0602
Django0602

Reputation: 807

Python time series using FB Prophet with covid-19

I have prepared a time series model using FB Prophet for making forecasts. The model forecasts for the coming 30 days and my data ranges from Jan 2019 until Mar 2020 both months inclusive with all the dates filled in. The model has been built specifically for the UK market

I have already taken care of the following:

  1. Seasonality
  2. Holidaying Effect

My question is, that how do I take care of the current COVID-19 situation into the same model? The cases that I am trying to forecast are also dependent on the previous data at least from Jan 2020. So in order to forecast I need to take into account the current coronavirus situation as well that would impact my forecasts apart from seasonality and holidaying effect.

How should I achieve this?

Upvotes: 1

Views: 1482

Answers (2)

Gedas Miksenas
Gedas Miksenas

Reputation: 1059

I have had the same issue with COVID at my work with sales forecasting. The easy solution for me was to make an additional regressor which indicates the COVID period, and use that in my model. Then my future is not affected by COVID, unless I tell it that it should be.

Upvotes: 0

omer sagi
omer sagi

Reputation: 731

Haven't tried it but one thing I have in mind is to add covid-19 as a one-time holiday. You can see an example for adding a one-time promo as a pseudo-holiday in the following link: https://towardsdatascience.com/forecasting-in-python-with-facebook-prophet-29810eb57e66

I assume that it can be applied to a negative effect, caudes by covid-19,

Upvotes: 1

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