Reputation: 1
I am using the AutoTS package for multivariate time series forecasting. The idea is to fit the model on a train set and forecast for validation set because I want to get metrics for each individual column. Pick top 3 models from validation and forecast for next 4 quarters of the entire data.
I am performing a train-validation split to compare the mean absolute error (MAE) results of individual columns with other univariate time series models. This approach ensures a common comparison metric. If there are better methods for achieving this, please suggest them.
# Prepare the data for AutoTS
model = AutoTS(
forecast_length=2,
frequency='infer',
model_list=['NVAR','MAR','MultivariateRegression','NeuralForecast','DynamicFactorMQ'],
transformer_list="fast", # "superfast", "default", "fast_parallel"
transformer_max_depth=2,
max_generations=1,
num_validations=1,
validation_method='backwards',
no_negatives=True,
remove_leading_zeroes=True
)
model = model.fit(
train_df,
date_col='year-quarter-date',
value_col='value',
id_col='vial_size'
)
# Get the top 3 models based on the score
top_3_models = model.results().sort_values(by='Score').head(3)
# Calculate MAE for each of the top 3 models
for _, row in top_3_models.iterrows():
model_name = row['Model']
model_param_dict = row['ModelParameters']
model_transform_dict = row['TransformationParameters']
# Calculate next two quarters' year-quarter-date
last_date = pd.to_datetime(train_df['year-quarter-date'].max())
next_quarters = pd.date_range(last_date, periods=3, freq='Q')[1:]
next_quarters_str = next_quarters.to_period('Q').astype(str)
# Predict the next two quarters using the predict method
forecast_result = model_forecast(
model_name=model_name,
model_param_dict=model_param_dict,
model_transform_dict=model_transform_dict,
df_train=train_df,
forecast_length=2,
frequency='Q',
no_negatives=True,
remove_leading_zeroes=True,
)
models = top_models[molecule]
for _, model in models:
model.forecast_length = 4
model = model.fit(
molecule_df,
date_col='year-quarter-date',
value_col='value',
id_col='vial_size'
)
prediction = model.predict()
forecast = prediction.forecast
This is taking more time to work through and I want to understand if there is a better way to do what I want to achieve. Process Flow:
Upvotes: 0
Views: 92